AFL 2017 finals prediction

At 7:50pm last Friday night, the Geelong jumper in the goal square had #35 on the back – Patrick Dangerfield was full forward. He had 2 goals in the first 10mins of the game and added another 2 before halftime along with 2 out-of-bounds attempts. At this point the white flag was waved, yet another tip wrong, time to settle in at the Stumps Tavern.

The finals have delivered some exciting and at times unpredictable results, John Longmire’s men appeared to “run out of steam” in their second final against Geelong after overcoming a huge 0-6 deficit at the beginning start their 2017 campaign. Up at Spotless Stadium, GWS seemed to make light work of the travelling Eagles; however, this week presents a contrasting challenge as they take on 22 fierce players and (a predicted) 90,000 raucous fans in the late afternoon at the MCG. We expect a close encounter in Adelaide on Friday night however the crows should have the ascendancy over the cats despite the inclusion of Tom Lonergan (Geelong) who missed last week’s clash against Sydney after consuming a suspect sausage roll and suffering food poisoning.

finals 3rd time

Our track record may suggest one of the tips this round will be incorrect, but let’s stay optimistic and trust the model. The simulation has seen a severe adjustment after the swans were bundled out and we’ve also adjusted the variance of the simulation to incorporate the results of the finals series so far. The new expectations of the Premiership Winner this year are listed below with Richmond’s stock price rising; however, Adelaide has one hand on the cup with almost 30% chance of success. Geelong and GWS are both walking into matches as the underdogs, but given what has happened in this finals series so far you can’t rule them out just yet!

probability 3